It would be nice to build an ingredient database if one is not out there already. Also the toxnet data is not formatted well for the “toxic” levels of certain chemicals, so it would be a job to format that as well.
References are linked by number beside the claim. Then there is a references section at the bottom. I don’t really follow proper citation guidelines…though maybe I should change that. Or I might just try the publication title and journal. Names always had odd characters which caused rendering problems…
Random thought: LiChess has a “luck” factor in your profile that quantifies when you having won because of a “blunder” of your opponent vs your skill. IT would be nice to get the aggregate data of luck and see the distribution. Are there people who really are more lucky than others, or does everyone have the same average of luck? (In terms of chess)
because of a “blunder” of your opponent vs your skill.
The interesting question to me here is how they’re defining a ‘blunder’. Are they able to determine a game-losing misplay, or a move that is unexpectedly bad given a player’s rating? Or are their blunders just a coarse “you’ve beaten someone of equal skill, therefore the loser made a mistake”.
if its the latter, your luck factor factor would just be a leading signal that your rating needs adjustment.
if its the former, luck sounds more proximate to weaknesses in the rating algorithm than anything else… which might actually be interesting to look at
Chess is a defined game and a computer can cycle through every possibility. From the total basket of moves it can then rate which move is “best”. If the move you make is 2 standard deviations from the basket of “good” and “best” moves that counts as a blunder.
So in this case, if you are in too many games where you opponent blunders your rating would go up. I think the rating system is purely based on number of games played, and then winning and losing based on the rating of the opponent.
Interesting questions though, thanks for the interest!
Also, from the slack:
I was talking with other people about this concept of going on a “streak” with many wins in a row, and so on. The luck data matches that. Other times, I feel like nothing works. Kind of reflects “good days” and “bad days”. There probably are studies out quantifying
Also RE: database driven projects – I am not sure that LiChess would release everyone’s luck factor, but it would be interesting! One controversial statement is that “good” players are less likely to be influenced by luck than “bad” players… hmm…
Luck would be pretty interesting on a short time scale, like analyzing the results of a specific tournament. Though I bet that the rate of blunders gets really small among higher skilled players, to the point where it wouldn’t have a significant impact.
On a related topic I wonder if certain openings lead to games with a higher rate of blunders. For example if you could look at your game history, and identify that you make a lot more blunders when you play as black against the King’s Gambit.